According to @EricBalchunas, the crypto market is showing resilience, with Bitcoin (BTC) experiencing only a minor dip to around $105,400 despite renewed US tariff threats against Canada. Coinbase analysts noted in a research report that markets have largely disregarded these potential economic risks. While BTC's price action was mild, crypto-related stocks saw more significant declines, with Coinbase (COIN) falling 6% and Circle (CRCL) dropping 16%. Looking ahead, traders are keenly focused on two major events: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. While Fed Governor Christopher Waller hinted at a possible July rate cut, analysts at ING predict only one 50bp cut in December. Chris Weston of Pepperstone suggested on X that any dovish signals from Powell could boost risk assets like BTC. The market consensus expects a benign 0.1% month-on-month increase in the May core PCE data, which could support rate cut expectations ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.50%, a move widely anticipated by the market. The Fed's latest economic projections, including the 'dot plot,' still forecast 50 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, consistent with their March outlook, but signal fewer cuts in subsequent years. Policymakers also adjusted their forecasts to reflect weaker economic growth, with the 2024 GDP projection lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%, and higher inflation, with the PCE forecast rising to 3.0%. Following the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) price showed minimal volatility, trading around $104,200. Traders are now shifting their focus to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data. A dovish stance from Powell or a soft PCE reading could increase risk appetite, potentially benefiting BTC, which has maintained levels above $100,000. However, analysts at ING suggest clarity on inflation may not emerge until December, implying the possibility of just one 50 basis point rate cut this year.

According to @rovercrc, the cryptocurrency market is rallying on institutional developments, with Bitcoin (BTC) climbing to $108,600, just below its all-time high. The surge is fueled by positive news, including a JPMorgan trademark application for digital asset services and the upcoming launch of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Canada by Purpose, which also caused XRP to gain 6-7%. Despite strong altcoin performance, Nansen research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard stated that it is not yet an 'alt season,' as BTC's performance remains the primary market trigger. From a technical standpoint, Bitfinex analysts noted that last week's aggressive selling and drop in the Fear and Greed Index resemble past 'capitulation-style setups,' suggesting a potential local bottom if BTC can hold the $102,000-$103,000 support zone. Looking ahead, traders are focused on U.S. macro events, particularly Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony and the core PCE inflation data, which Swissblock analysts believe will drive significant market volatility.

According to @_RichardTeng, Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting remarkably low volatility, with the Deribit BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) dropping to its lowest point since late 2023 as the price holds steady near $107,000. Deribit's Chief Commercial Officer, Jean-David Péquignot, has identified the $105,000 level as a pivotal support for traders to watch. Market participants are in a 'wait-and-see' phase ahead of the crucial U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data release, which Bitfinix analysts suggest will likely dictate the market's short-term direction. A dovish PCE result could trigger a catch-up rally for crypto assets. Meanwhile, a significant trend is emerging in Asia, where major banks are exploring stablecoins (USDT, USDC) to mitigate deposit flight, as highlighted by Fireblocks' Head of Asia, Amy Zhang. In corporate news, Bakkt Holdings (BKKT) filed to raise $1 billion to purchase BTC. For altcoin traders, XLM, BCH, and APT show deeply negative funding rates, signaling the potential for a short squeeze.

According to Omkar Godbole, Valentine Fournier, an analyst at BRN, stated that long-term structural demand for bitcoin BTC will overcome short-term bearish sentiment, driven by institutional adoption from entities like Metaplanet and Texas. Fournier added that Solana SOL could outperform in a recovery, while Ethereum ETH may regain support as volatility eases. Mean Theodorou, co-founder at Coinstash, noted that volatility could persist due to geopolitical events like U.S.-Iran tensions, with altcoins such as DOGE, ADA, and SOL showing steep losses indicating market de-risking. Key trading events this week include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony and core PCE data release, which could influence crypto markets.

According to Crypto Rover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, set for release at 8:30 AM ET, could influence Bitcoin's market performance. February's Core PCE was 2.6%, and a rise to 2.7% is expected. If the actual figure is lower than anticipated, Bitcoin is likely to rally, suggesting traders should prepare for potential market movements. This analysis is based on historical data where lower-than-expected inflation figures have often led to cryptocurrency price increases.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for January 2024 will be released on Friday, February 28th. This data is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve and is crucial for cryptocurrency traders as it can influence market volatility. The data release is scheduled for 8:30 AM ET, and traders should be aware of the potential impact on crypto pricing dynamics. As the Fed's preferred inflation measure, any deviation from expectations could lead to significant trading opportunities or risks.